Viruses virulence-proliferation model based on thermodynamics.

Anyone who looks at the waves of morbidity that characterized the entire world of the coronavirus pandemic will find that they are strange. There is no reason for waves of morbidity in a continuous mathematical model. A similar phenomenon was recorded in the Spanish flu a century earlier. Coincidence? Of course not.

Precisely because viruses are relatively simple molecules with no independent, energetic function, their analysis according to the laws of thermodynamics (energy conservation) is relatively simple compared to the enormous complexity of the biochemistry of viruses. Looking at viral mutations as a completely random process is incorrect. Viruses have a built-in entropy (disorder) mechanism.

Note: This model is presented below in its mathematical form, which may cause some readers discomfort; however, it can be understood logically, even without delving into the mathematical model.

Introduction to viruses and this model. 

• Imagine a deadly viral disease like the Ebola virus, with a contagious ability like COVID-19 - the world would collapse! According to the model I present here for the first time, such a situation is unlikely. 

Mandatory assumptions of this model:

• The premise is that the host's energy is directed only to replicate viruses and does not serve to modify the viruses' genetic makeup through mutations.
• Viruses mutate, but this is an entropy mechanism and cannot be attributed to natural selection, a biological process that applies only to organisms. Link: Viruses mutate but can't be attributed to natural selection.

The waves of infection observed during the COVID-19 pandemic and before it in the Spanish flu (at the beginning of the 20th century) cannot be explained without the energetic dimension compared to shifting gears in a car.

Viruses have a built-in entropy mechanism (disorder) that makes them more resilient but requires them to invest energy in modifications—an evasion tactic.

• The idea of the effect of solar flare cycles (every 11 years) on viral diseases is not new. The theory and model of energy conservation I propose regarding viruses are unique and original. Link: Sunspot Cycle and Human Health: Because viruses are relatively simple molecules with no independent, energetic function, their analysis according to the laws of thermodynamics (energy conservation) is relatively simple compared to the enormous complexity of the biochemistry of viruses. Link: Solar flare (Wikipedia)

Except for the Ebola virus (1976) and COVID-19, all other viral epidemic outbreaks over 100 years occurred close to the peaks of solar flares.

This model presents an entirely different view of viral activities using energy conservation laws of thermodynamics.

Link: Thermodynamics (Wikipedia) 

Looking at viral mutations as a completely random process is incorrect. Viruses have a built-in entropy mechanism (disorder) that makes them more resilient. On the other hand, it requires them to invest in genetic modifications—a tactic of evasion and camouflage.

• This model will enable researchers to understand better biochemical phenomena related to viruses. The mathematical analysis of the development of viral epidemics will take on another new dimension and allow for much better predictions.
• The seemingly bizarre behavior of the COVID-19 outbreak led me to conclude that we ignore an essential critical dimension in understanding the development of viral epidemic outbreaks- their varying energy levels.
• Compared to other pathogens (including various parasites), viruses do not have an independent energy cellular organ (mitochondria); therefore, they depend entirely on the ability to penetrate the host cell for genetic replication. (Using the host's energy)
• Each virus comprises biological molecules, including genetic material (single-stranded or double-stranded D.N.A. or R.N.A.) and related proteins. (many scientists do not consider it alive.) By itself, the virus lacks any independent function outside the host body, so it must obey the laws of energy conservation, which are reflected in the laws of the branch of physics called thermodynamics.

By analogy, similar to humans who absorb solar energy—ultraviolet radiation (electromagnetic radiation)—to build vitamin D and also for energetic charging (which has a positive effect on our bodies), viruses can absorb solar radiation energies (electromagnetic radiation) at specific frequencies to create new mutations aimed at increasing their ability to infect.

Base assumptions, consistent with the first law and second laws of thermodynamics:

Energetic systems can always be described using their Kinetic energy + their Potential energy. The model assumes no significant energy loss (e.g., heat) exists in the energetic and biochemical processes of creating new mutations.

• The laws of thermodynamics and energy conservation are always valid but very complicated to apply to living things because living things, unlike viruses, have independent energy production.
• Viruses are (neither living nor inanimate). A virus is a parasite, devoid of independent, energetic ability, that uses the host cell and is, therefore, the exception that meets the criteria for applying the laws of thermodynamics. 

The first law of thermodynamics extends the law of energy conservation. "Energy does not disappear and is not created out of nothing." (From Wikipedia)

• Precisely because viruses are relatively simple molecules with no independent, energetic function, their analysis at the level of the laws of thermodynamics is relatively simple compared to the enormous complexity of the biochemistry of viruses.
• Each virus has a kind of "energetic fingerprint" expressed in constant, unchangeable energy without an external energy source. The host cell can be hijacked but cannot change the virus's energetic properties.
• Looking at a single virus is like looking at any synchronized virus group. (Similar to a beehive or a colony of bacteria)

Description of the basic model.

The energetic signature of each virus is divided into two parts: (Since these are entirely different scales, they have constant coefficients that make them uniform energy units.)

At any given time (t), the virus has provided energy, which is the result of kinetic energy (infectivity) and potential energy (violence).

• Kinetic energy is expressed in the virus' ability to increase.
• The potential energy is reflected in the "virus violence" level and its ability to cause acute illness.

On the other hand, the virus must regularly invest energy in survival by creating new mutations.

• The virus allocates energy over time (t) to create new mutations. The result comes later in (t + 1) and is reflected in the improved ability to spread the virus.

The premise is that entropy (disorder) manifested in improved infectivity is far more critical than the violence of the virus.

• Therefore, the virus is willing to sacrifice its violence but not its ability to spread. The solution results from built-in simultaneous optimization, which should not surprise anyone.

In a given wave of illness, the violence of the virus does not change. (The derivative of the potential energy by time equals 0.)

Variants (mutations) and the second law of thermodynamics.

The second law of thermodynamics is that a system will always aspire to the highest entropy (disorder) and the lowest energy level. This law is mainly expressed in chemical reactions. (From Wikipedia)

• A mutation in viruses is an expression of entropy. (Disorder) The virus strives to spread and, in the process, descend to the lowest possible energy level. To spread and increase circulation, it must give up something. (To conserve its total energy.)
• New viruses are not created "out of nothing." They must have external energy that will activate their mutation mechanism.
• The "host" cell allows the virus to replicate itself but does not provide the virus with the energy needed to produce mutations (variants). The energy required to have mutations must come from the environment or at the expense of existing energy, reflected in the slowdown in the spread of the virus. External energy may be electromagnetic radiation. A notable example is the cosmic radiation of solar flares.

A solar flare is an intense eruption of electromagnetic radiation in the Sun's atmosphere.

Solar flare cycles over a hundred years explain the outbreak of most viral pandemics.

During World Wars, no significant viral outbreaks were recorded.

The impact of solar flares on creating new variants is very substantial.

Link: Top 50 solar flares of the year 20XX

The virus can absorb energy only at specific frequencies (synchronized with it precisely). Not every solar flare charges the virus's energy. However, the probability is higher when there are many solar flares (at the peak of solar flare cycles).

• Intense solar flares from October to December 2021, with a relatively small time difference, sharply increased the disease's spread rate. The powerful solar eruptions peaked the energy level, which created many mutations, bypassing the vaccines and dramatically expanding the infection level. As expected, the violence caused by the virus has dropped sharply!
• The Sun emitted a significant solar flare, peaking at 11:35 a.m. EDT on Oct. 28, 2021. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory, which watches the Sun constantly, captured an event's image.
• Reports say that a solar storm that erupted on the Sun on Dec. 20 might disrupt Christmas 2021, as NASA warned of an incoming "impact" that could cause radio disruptions and G.P.S. issues.
• At the beginning of 2022, several solar storms were recorded, not very strong, but with a short time difference.

The phenomenon of saw teeth-like waves illustrated during the coronavirus outbreak is not accidental!

The graph reflects aggregate data from all countries of the world. You will find charts with similar trends in most countries worldwide, with a few exceptions. The virus is forced to give up energy to create new mutations temporarily. (Unless it has an available external energy source such as solar flares) The phenomenon of waves is consistent with reports of Spanish flu. (From 100 years ago and more)

COVID-19 Daily New Cases. (Updated November 2022. (Worldmeter) 

The mathematical model is explained in the text.

This model can be understood, even without an understanding of mathematical analysis. 

Although this mathematical model is currently unsolvable, it allows for far-reaching insights. These equations are the result of the first and second laws of thermodynamics. Energy is not created out of anything. Mutations are an entropy process that must occur. Note: To achieve entropy and energy conservation, the virus must perform many mutations until it reaches its maximum proliferation ability.

1. The virus's kinetic energy is expressed in two components: 1, its rate of proliferation, 2, its investment in energy at a given period in the production of new mutations, and 3, the potential energy of the virus, which is expressed in its "violence" = equal to a unique universal Constant+ virus external energy absorbed from the environment in the form of specific solar flares during a certain period.
   • To make the variables consistent, they must be multiplied by universal coefficients that reflect their energetic status (I ignore them for illustration). They exist in formulas.
   • When we make a derivative of the whole equation by time, the universal coefficient resets (it does not change with time). We are left with four variables.
2. The energy investment of the virus in producing new mutations is always positive at any given period. The energy invested in new mutations over time (which it takes for the virus to make new mutations) will always be positive. (Greater than 0)
3. The investment in producing new mutations results from optimizing a simultaneous equation, considering whether the virus has received energy from an external source. If the virus does not have an external energy source, it invests self-energy, mainly at the expense of its infectivity. (Hence also the phenomenon of infection waves that scientists are unable to explain)
4. The investment in new mutations during each period is positively reflected in the virus's ability to increase its infection rate but with a time difference. Investment in mutations is positive but declining. (Otherwise, the equation will not converge)
   • An example (not necessarily realistic) of a suitable function that reflects the relationship between the energy investment on mutations and the return on proliferation is a square root of X; it increases steadily (positive first derivative) but decreases (negative second derivative)
5. During each new wave - the level of violence of the virus does not change. (Derivative of virus violence relative to time equal to 0)
6. The model assumes that the time required to produce a new mutation is fixed and does not depend on external energetic variables. Each virus has a unique value.

The proposed model will provide a critical variable figure (the built-in change in the infectivity rate), allowing for improved analysis of existing mathematical models.

Link: Compartmental models in epidemiology (Wikipedia) 

• The S.I.R. (Susceptible, Infectious, or Recovered) model is the most common mathematical model for epidemiological prediction. The model includes a set of differential equations. The model assumes that someone who fell ill (or died) will not fall sick again. (Does not match reality) The rate of infection and recovery is not fixed; they depend on many variables. The model I propose does not stand on its own; it will be able to improve the existing models later on, but their level of complexity will remain high.

Viruses Virulence and Proliferation Model formulated. 

Summary, Conclusions, and Recommendations.

The mathematical solution of these differential equations using empirical data on solar flares and viral outbreak frequencies may provide an unexplored picture of viral outbreaks.

• The first and second laws of thermodynamics cause a situation where the virus constantly tries to increase its infection rate. (Maximum entropy) It must produce mutations to improve proliferation, bypassing the immune system and vaccines.
• Still, the formation of new mutations costs internal energy (without an available external energy source), which must be reflected in a temporary slowdown in the infection rate. (This is the explanation for the phenomenon of infection waves.) and at the level of violence caused by the virus. All this is because the energy available to the virus is limited. (Energy is not created out of anything.) Intense solar flares can produce new mutations without any energetic relinquishment of the level of infection or the level of violence of the virus! Therefore, after intense solar flares, highly contagious waves of the virus arrived.

The mathematical model can form a theoretical basis for a series of discoveries.

• Since each virus has an energetic "fingerprint," it will be possible to map all viruses with their energy coefficient. It will be possible to try statistically to find out (using statistical regressions) the equation in which the virus produces the added value of the mutations. (This is the most comprehensive research.) Using statistical analysis, it will be possible to map viral processes over the years. Such research will have practical, health, and economic implications.

Viruses have a very successful evasion strategy! But it stems from entropy (disorder) laws integral to natural processes.

1. Morbidity waves occur when viruses are "forced" to give up kinetic energy (infectivity) to produce new mutations. During each wave, the virus violence (potential energy) remains unchanged. 
2. Over time, an increase in the virus's ability to infect comes at the expense of a setback in its violence.
3. The virus "should" regularly invest in producing new mutations in the optimization process. Further investment in mutations is beneficial, but it is declining. (Otherwise, the process does not converge.)
4. Solar solid flares, synchronized at the appropriate frequency, allow the virus to produce new mutations without sacrificing its violence or reducing the production of new conversions. An inevitable conclusion is that we must closely monitor solar flares and expect short-run results.

How are new strains of viruses created?

• Creating a new virus strain requires significant changes in the virus's code, which consumes much energy. The energy for creating a new strain cannot come only from the host cell—an external energy source is also required. Most often, it is in the form of solar flares that release high-intensity electromagnetic radiation. 
• The phenomenon of viral epidemics breaking out at the height of solar flares is not accidental. The amount of solar flares (not necessarily the intensity) is at its peak.

It is no coincidence that no very violent viruses are contagious! These are very high-energy viruses, which are not within the energy signature range of viruses.

• Imagine viruses like Sars covid-1 in 2002-2003, with mortality rates of about 9%, breaking out today with the tremendous level of infection of COVID-19. The world would collapse only from panic! I argue that this is impossible on the energetic level. The extraordinarily violent virus gives up its level of infection (kinetic energy)

Do solar flares affect our immune system?

• Solar solid flares may also affect the magnetic field in our body and the vortex around it, thus affecting our immune system. This subject is in its infancy and has not been researched in depth.

Those who are surprised by the fact that viruses run a brilliant optimization!

• It is a topic for broad philosophical discussion. A mathematical expression is found everywhere in nature, and viruses are no exception.

The unexplained waves of infection of the coronavirus suggested a whole dimension missing - the energetic dimension. The waves of infectivity are reminiscent of a racing driver who accelerates on the descent when he knows there is an ascent after it. Replacing its kinetic energy (velocity of motion) with potential energy. (Height)

This model needs further examination, validation, mathematical development, and statistical confirmation. At the same time, the findings I suggest have far-reaching methodological and practical implications in every possible aspect.

Viruses Virulence-Proliferation Model—Based on Laws of Thermodynamics.

1. Why are highly virulent viruses (such as Ebola) often not very contagious and vice versa?

Imagine a very virulent virus (like the Ebola virus) but with a contagious capacity like that of COVID-19; the world would be wiped out! Why is this unlikely to happen?

 There have been epidemics in history that wiped out massive populations.

 Each virus has a constant, given self-energy. An increase in the virulence of the virus requires that the virus decreases its ability to spread and vice versa.

 The Black Death raged through Europe, killing millions.

 The AIDS epidemic of the 1980s put many populations in fear of death.

See my suggested, most suitable answer »

A more detailed explanation:

1. The most suitable answer is answer number 2.
Precisely because viruses are relatively simple molecules with no independent, energetic function, their analysis according to the laws of thermodynamics (energy conservation) is relatively simple compared to the enormous complexity of the biochemistry of viruses.